News: Gameweek 1 - Beating the Bookies

Posted by FlipjeTiel on 2018-08-09.

Each week we will analyse the upcoming Premier League gameweek by looking into the odds from the bookmaker and see whether or not the level of the odds gives us an indication of whether we should go for a Home, Draw or Away result. We have initially build a very simple model in which we go for a Draw in case the odds between the Home and Away team are smaller than a certain number and otherwise for a Home win. We will analyse and update this model every week to see if we can get better results.

We have again used 10 years of historical Premier League data and have looked at the largest number of correct predictions, see below. We get the best possible outcome if we go for a Draw in  case the difference between the Home and the Away team is smaller than 0,2. Otherwise we will always go for a Home result.

We see that over the years we only have about 50-60% of the predictions correct. So we definitely need to upgrade our model further. 

For our upcoming gameweek our model predicts that we should always go for a Home win. So predicting a positive outcome for the home team. If you want to have more insight in by how much a team is most likely going to win you can have a look at our historical data analysis or the statistical analysis.

We hope this could help you further in your analysis to make a good prediction. Next week we will reveal if we can also calibrate our model to have a positive outcome when taking into account the payout of the bookies as well (instead of only looking at whether the prediction was correct). At the end, you'd rather have a prediction correct that has odds of 1 to 3 than odds of 1 to 2.